The Pennsylvania Independent Fiscal Office presented a mid-year state revenue update with economic forecast ahead of Gov. Shapiro’s 2026-2027 budget address on Tuesday. The presentation looks at the impact of tariffs and found minimal impact on consumers. Only 20% of these costs were added to retail prices, with most of the costs absorbed in existing prices and importers and exporters shouldering the remainder. It saw an uptick in unemployment partially due to reduced federal spending cuts. Additionally, low job growth was noted, primarily in healthcare. 

The report found a regional increase in inflation above the national average, with the Philly CPI-U increased to 3.9% from 3.3% in August. This was primarily driven by increasing energy costs, with utilities up 15% and homeownership/rent costs. Click here to view the presentation slides.